Trump Won. Next Up for the Most Pro-Stock Market Administration?

Post $950 billion Halloween blood bath, the Trump 2.0 economy has been booming. Experts (now say) that the stock market could enjoy a bigger boost from President-elect Donald Trump than any previous administration.

This is all thanks to his pro-business policies, a potential renewal of the tax reform set to expire at the end of 2025, and the Drill-Baby-Drill mantra.

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What an underdog comeback!

I didn’t think we could even run again. This was an uphill battle with a near-miss assassination attempt. Teflon Don earned his moniker this cycle. We are due for a change in tempo.

President-elect Trump measured his success in his first term by how well the stock market did. Back then Trump was 71 and arguably more combative and energized. Trump (at 78) seems a bit more restrained and maybe more focused. At this point in his legacy, the new administration will avoid making financial plunders. The overwhelming mandate is for an economy that functions for more Americans.

How will that be possible or achievable?

I don’t know. However, the true lesson is how to pivot to ensure that you win more when others are winning. In contrast, you will also need to be mindful to lose less when others are losing. If the next administration performs even 75% of the miracle elixirs, we will see a new decade in modern conservatism with one goal.

So what’s the end goal?

To keep day-to-day prices suppressed Long enough for businesses to ramp up and investors to get richer. This will heavily rely on harnessing domestic productivity.

The Trump ’24 Effect: Dow over 44,000 and the S&P over 6,000

Financial euphoria has hit the market, on the back of speculation and gambling. We are in for a wacky ride of retail investors chasing tail wins such as Bitcoin going to 100,000.

The stock market reached new heights in reaction to Trump’s election win. The S&P 500 soared 4.66%, trading above 6,000. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed above a new milestone of 44,000 post-election.

Tesla $TSLA shares skyrocket +29% to return to a $1 trillion market cap. The financial industry’s bank stocks had massive rallies (+12%). Bitcoin hit record after record highs. Back in September 2024, Bitcoin hit a low of 56,000. With a value of nearly 90,000 (+60% increase) in November 2024, the joke is on me.

In addition to the 25 basis points cut from the Federal Reserves, the central bank is unanimous on the new benchmark. The latest reading from the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed inflation rose 2.1% during September. This is within the Fed’s target with a 4.1% national unemployment rate. The great rate of unemployment is close to 3.5%. Post 2022, companies are leaner and they have the cash to invest.

I might need to revamp my resume just in case. Opportunities will pop up by 2028. As they say, “Lock In.”

Big Risk and Bigger Payout for Those Who Invested in the Election

Investors bet heavily on his promises of tax cuts and deregulation.

Prediction gambling is set to pay out $450 million. Their winnings may pale to a Polymarket bettor known as the “Polymarket whale.” The French former trader made $40 million worth of Trump-related bets. If Trump wins the popular vote, the “whale” walks away with $80 million.

This market froth will rotate back into legacy companies like Nvidia $NVDIA (soon enough). These sharp turns will propel growth and benefit-risk assets deep into 2025. I’d recommend taking some profits off the table when and where possible.

Post-Headwinds for 2025?

Tariffs (maybe) and rampant fear.

As popular as Trump is, I’m not sure how much of this jubilation will last. The president-elect’s trade policy includes a vow to slap steep tariffs on (all) trading partners.

Social media influencers (with no background in economics) are saying that this will hurt consumers. While there might be credible doubts, it’s more likely that the Trump administration jump scares other countries. The day after the election, it felt like the principal came into an unruly class and everyone started to behave.

Tariffs and mass deportations could hurt growth.

They may even boil over inflationary pressures as we head toward a steady 2%. In my opinion, it’s more likely that changes will be phased into society as we grapple with societal changes. We can all admit that the current financial disposition of the US isn’t working for everyone.

I’m Optimistic about Trump 2.0

No, I didn’t vote for him. I’m optimistic about the next four years. This could be the medicine that we need. Maybe this is a chance for politicians to start listening to everyday people. Or an opportunity to either bring balance to our fiscal policies or efficiency to our national cash flow.

I’m predicting that 2025 will have +29% returns for the S&P500.

This will be followed by a stalled market for 2026-2027, and ending with a positive +20% for 2028. Ultimately, I hope this ship continues to float for the next 4 years since we are all onboard without life jackets. Hoping a cruise liner sinks because you don’t like the captain, doesn’t help when everyone is on board. Either way, you are better off getting your household finances in order so you can buy assets to help build your future. No matter who you voted for, the next four years are up to you. If I can throw something positive in for VP Harris. Her team ran an amazing campaign. In less than 3 months, they were able to galvanize people. Yeah, it might not have been enough, but it was an impressive effort.

Well here are some of my market notes.